November 10, 2012

Mack-Rose Cuts Into Reed's Lead in San Leandro City Council District 2 Race

As of Saturday, November 10, 2012, the San Leandro City Council District 2 race between incumbent Ursula Reed and Morgan Mack-Rose continues to be too close to call with Reed leading by just 81 votes after the ranked choice algorithm is run. On election night, Reed's lead was 97 votes, which increased to 117 on Wednesday and then 149 on Friday.

Although Reed leads Mack-Rose with 7,692 (42.34%) to 6,985 (38.45%) first-place votes, Mack-Rose has been getting about 44% of Dan Dillman's second-place votes. Reed has been getting about 26% of Dillman's second-place votes while 30% of voters who made Dillman their first choice indicated no second or third choice.

In 2010, a total of 23,494 votes were cast in the San Leandro City Council elections. However, since this election was a presidential election, a higher turnout is expected, though not as high as the 2008 election, when 26,776 votes were cast in the District 2 runoff election. With 19,753 ballots counted so far, there are likely 4,000 to 5,000 more San Leandro ballots to be counted.

Mayor Stephen Cassidy won the 2010 election over incumbent Tony Santos by 232 votes after initially trailing Santos by 74 first place votes. At this point, Mack-Rose faces a 707-vote first-place vote deficit.

In 2010, the Alameda County Registrar of Voters (ROV) certified the election results 17 days after the election and 11 days before the 28-day required deadline. If the ROV performs the same this year, the District 2 election results may not be known until November 23.

Update: On Sunday, November 11, 2012, the latest vote totals and RCV show Reed with a 405 vote lead. Even if there are more votes to be counted, Reed is almost certain to be the eventual winner.

Posted by Mike Katz-Lacabe at November 10, 2012 9:11 PM | TrackBack

Reed has now stretched lead out to 405 votes
10397 Rose
10802 Reed

Cassidy 0-3 adding more dysfunction to council.

Posted by: Mike at November 11, 2012 5:39 PM
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